2010 levels of diabetes in Tayside exceed those initially predicted for 2018

15 June 2010

Levels of diabetes in 2010 in NHS Tayside have now exceeded predicted levels for diabetes in 2018.

Marlyn Glen says that the figures " demonstrate acutely that the rise in diabetes is one of today’s biggest public health problems."

Ms. Glen said that in 2005, ABPI Scotland (the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry in Scotland ) produced a report called "The Future Burden of CHD ( coronary heart disease) and Diabetes in Scotland" which expressed great concern about the rise of diabetes.

It said that diabetes was " growing dramatically" and that "the impact of living with diabetes has potentially devastating consequences for individuals, the NHS in Scotland and our society as a whole."

It forecast that by 2018, the number of cases of diabetes in NHS Tayside would rise to 15,267.

This prediction was based purely on population-based changes .

It did add that, "Given lifestyle trends, especially increasing levels of obesity, the true number with diabetes is likely to be even greater."

Ms. Glen said,

"The latest Scottish Diabetes Survey now puts the numbers with the condition in NHS Tayside in January 2010 at 18,157

"That is already well over 2,000 greater than the forecasted figure for 2018."

"These figures reveal the considerable effect that diet, activity and life style factors have contributed towards the sharp rise."

"Its prevention remains a health priority, particularly when the prevalence of diabetes is linked with another major public health concern, obesity.

According to the 2009 Scottish Diabetes survey, there are 16,283 people in NHS Tayside with the more common Type 2 diabetes and a further 1,771 with Type 1.

The overall Tayside figures accounts for 4.6 per cent of the population (the Scottish figure is 4,4 per cent)

Ms. Glen said that there are over 2,400 people in NHS Tayside are estimated to have undiagnosed diabetes, according to the Scottish Public Health Observatory

NHS Quality Improvement Scotland estimate the cost of diabetic care now costs £1 billion, which is 10 per cent of the national health service budget.

Ms. Glen said,

" The prodigious costs to the individual, society in general and the health service make uncontrolled diabetes one of today’s major public health problems."

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